While the media trot out the hoary old cliché about the ‘magic of the cup’, this weekend millions of punters will find nothing remotely Harry Potter about the prospect of the FA Cup ‘proper’ rolling around once again. If ever there was an acca killer it’s this set of fixtures with its David v Goliath unpredictability disrupting carefully studied league form. Then there’s the all Premier League or all Championship clashes where team selections come to the fore.
Fear not though because there is still value out there if you know where to look and below are five likely ‘upsets’ where you can feign surprise as you cash in.
Birmingham to beat Newcastle
If there’s one sure-fire(ish) rule to adhere to when betting on FA Cup third round games it’s to back against sides who have the promotion bit firmly between their teeth. Not only do they have much bigger, more realistic aspirations than to go deep in a domestic knock-out tournament but whoever is in charge tends to make sweeping changes and utilise his peripheral talent. This of course sends out a clear, if unspoken, message to his players as to where his priorities lie and though Rafa’s second string will be keen to prove their worth, a fired-up St Andrews is a tricky place to do it.
Newcastle battered Brum 4-0 in December at St James’ Park, one of five losses in seven for the Midlands club, but don’t be surprised if Gianfranco Zola is celebrating his first victory with the Blues come Saturday teatime as Benitez puts out the kids.
Barrow to beat Rochdale
The Dale have hit a rich vein of form since mid-December with five straight wins that has seen them rocket into play-off contention so many might be tempted to tick the away box here. That, though, would ignore the fact that the Bluebirds are also in a play-off hunt two divisions down and despite ending the year with a disappointing 4-1 thumping at Gateshead are otherwise in fine fettle.
In Byron Harrison they have a striker scoring for fun and a cup hero in the making while the tight Holker Street will be packed and jumping.
This will be a tight one but such is Rochdale’s form expect decent value for the home side.
Derby to beat West Brom
For a club who have spent the modern era in the top two divisions the Baggies’ FA Cup record is little short of atrocious while Tony Pulis – Stoke’s cup final appearance in 2011 aside – can always be relied on to seek the holy grail of forty league points over a cup adventure.
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West Brom have progressed past the fourth round just seven times in the past 23 years with an astonishing 11 third round exits in that period so Steve McClaren’s men must fancy their chances in this local scrap at the Hawthorns. Added to this, the Rams were enjoying a superb run of results that stretched back to October until Norwich jolted momentum with a 3-0 reverse last week. It should be noted however that Derby were very much in the contest until Jacob Butterfield’s dismissal on the hour mark.
Expect Pulis to weaken his side with fringe players for this one. Half-expect their terrible cup curse to continue.
Lincoln to beat Ipswich
Not even Albion can hold a candle to Ipswich though when it comes to bailing early doors from the cup. The Tractor Boys have exited at the first time of asking in each of the last six seasons with gaffer Mick McCarthy one of the worst offenders out there for fielding a weakened side in the domestics.
On this occasion – possibly due to his side already being ruled out of a promotion chase – the former Republic of Ireland boss has promised to change his ways and select a strong eleven though he then goes on to name several doubtfuls all carrying knocks. Hmm.
As for Lincoln, they are flying high in the National League and in Matt Rhead and Nathan Arnold have two strikers who have already reached double figures this term. An upset at Portman Road admittedly presents an enormous challenge for the Imps but winning becomes a habit for league leaders and they will fear nothing and no-one at present.
Fleetwood to beat Bristol City
This may pit Championship v League One with the superior side at home but the Trawlermen are in terrific form of late while Bristol City are not. In fact scrap that, the Trawlermen are in terrific form while the Robins are haemorrhaging defeats as if they’re a newly discovered favourite pastime.
The season started so brightly for Lee Johnson’s team but they now hover above the relegation zone after suffering seven straight defeats on the bounce with confidence on the floor. It’s worth noting however that despite having a porous defence they continue to find the net which makes this one a must for any both-teams-to-score punt.
Fleetwood will be buoyed by this week’s contract extension for their captain Nathan Pond, while on Thursday they signed prolific non-league striker Alex Reid. A debut to remember? Don’t rule it out.
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