In any other year, Oklahoma City would be a shoo-in to repeat as conference champs. Young, star-heavy deep? Those kinds of teams are generational, good for at least a couple of trips to the Finals. But this isn’t any year and this sure isn’t any Western Conference. 

It’s no stretch to say this is the deepest a conference has been in the modern era. The top is loaded (Oklahoma City, Denver, Houston, et al.), the middle is packed (Minnesota, Golden State) and you have to go all the way to the bottom to find teams with nothing to play for. Maybe bottom. See you next year, Utah. 

It sets up one of the most competitive conference playoff races in decades, where a couple of games here or there can mean the difference between a top-four seed and the play-in. But there is some separation, at least on paper. Below, crack at the Western Conference tiers.

The Ring Chaser TierOklahoma City Thunder

Major addition: Nikola Topic
Key losses: None

Saying Oklahoma City could be better next season is an understatement. The Thunder could be better. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning MVP, is 27. Jalen Williams, fresh off his first All-NBA season, is 24. Chet Holmgren, who lost 50 games last season due to a hip injury, is 23 and had a full offseason to continue to fill out. Organic improvement alone is enough for OKC to surpass last season’s 68 wins. 

But wait, there’s more! The Thunder will add Topic, the 2024 lottery pick who missed all of last season with a knee injury. Topic had some dazzling moments in Summer League, showcasing flashy playmaking and skills in transition. There’s some Josh Giddey to his game—right down to the shaky jump shot—which should be enough to earn Topic some regular-season minutes, making the NBA’s deepest team even deeper and putting Oklahoma City in play to become the first back-to-back champion in eight years. 

Denver Nuggets

Major additions: Cam Johnson, Bruce Brown, Jonas Valanciunas, Tim Hardaway Jr.
Key loss: Michael Porter Jr. 

The Nuggets had an A+ offseason. Losing Porter hurts—say what you will about his flaws but he is an efficient scorer who thrived as a third option—but Johnson should replicate most of what Porter did offensively while providing more reliable defense, all at around $17 million less per season. 

And what did Denver do with that savings? The Nuggets spent it, fleshing out a thin rotation with reliable veterans. Brown is a known commodity in Denver, Valanciunas is a durable backup while Hardaway was a steal on a one-year, $3.6 million deal. The Nuggets’ overreliance on their starting five cost them last season, when a battered, worn-down lineup got blitzed in Game 7 of the conference semifinals. That shouldn’t be an issue this season, and if one of Denver’s collection of young talent (Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther, Jalen Pickett) makes a leap, the Nuggets could have their deepest roster of the Nikola Jokic era. 

Los Angeles Clippers

Major additions: John Collins, Bradley Beal, Chris Paul, Brook Lopez
Key loss: Norman Powell

Six years after the Clippers signed Kawhi Leonard, a year and a half after dealing Paul George and months after trading Powell, are we ready to say is the year L.A. breaks out? Leonard’s health is paramount: He missed 45 games last season, which forced the Clips to battle all the way to the end of the regular season to avoid the play-in, only to get stuck with an unenviable first-round matchup against Denver. Leonard is a year removed from a 68-game, All-NBA second-team season. Los Angeles needs version to return. 

If he does, L.A. could be formidable. Ivica Zubac had a breakout 2024–25 season, anchoring the NBA’s third-ranked defense. The Clippers fortified the frontcourt with Lopez and Collins, while Beal and Paul will (hopefully) replace the hole in the offense Powell leaves behind. There will be some growing pains, but this team could be top-10 on both ends of the floor. Will it be enough to get past the conference’s Goliaths? Stay tuned … 

Houston Rockets

Major addition: Kevin Durant
Key loss: Jalen Green

Houston stuck to its guns last season, refusing to make any roster decisions until it saw what its young team was capable of. The result: a 52-win season that ended with a first-round exit, one largely due to the Rockets’ inability to score in the halfcourt. 

Houston’s response: Acquire Durant, still a certified bucket-getter who appears to be a round peg/round hole fit with the Rockets. Houston ranked in the bottom third of the league in points per play in the half court, per Cleaning the Glass. Durant averaged 26.6 points last season, connecting on 52.7% of his shots. He’s impossible to guard from the elbow. Still lethal coming off screens. And his three-point shooting (43%) will open up the floor for everyone else.

Houston is another team that should see organic growth. Amen Thompson is an improved jump shot away from being a top-25 player. Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith and Tari Eason are all age 25 and under. Reed Sheppard, the No. 3 pick in the 2024 draft, played sparingly last season. Durant could be exactly the kind of catalyst needed to, er, rocket Houston to the next level. 

Los Angeles Lakers 

Major additions: Deandre Ayton, Marcus Smart, Jake LaRavia
Key losses: Dorian Finney-Smith, Jordan Goodwin

The jury is out on how the Lakers’ new additions will fit. Ayton is a stat-stuffing big man but will he succeed—and be happy—in a role that largely demands rebounding, defense and scoring at the rim? Smart was once one of the NBA’s most formidable wing defenders, but injuries have limited him to 54 games over the last two seasons. The Lakers prioritized signing LaRavia this summer, projecting him to be the kind of 3-and-D player they lost in Finney-Smith. But LaRavia, entering his fourth season, is unproven. 

Still, the case for L.A. as a top-tier contender is its formidable one-two punch. Luka Doncic is a top-five player who slimmed down considerably this offseason. And for all the chatter about what LeBron James do anymore, there’s still a lot he can, enough to earn a top-10 finish in last season’s MVP voting and a spot on the All-NBA second team. In a close game in the fourth quarter, the Lakers will have two elite closers on the floor. 

Will it be enough? Coach JJ Redick will have to figure out how to blend some unique talents. And defensively L.A. will need to improve on its middle-of-the-pack efficiency numbers from last season. But Doncic has already proven he can carry a team to the Finals, and he has been dominant in his matchups with Oklahoma City. If Ayton, Smart & Co. fit, this Lakers team will be formidable. 

The Next Fron(tier) Minnesota Timberwolves

Major additions: None
Key loss: Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Is Alexander-Walker replaceable? The Wolves survived a roster overhaul last season, integrating Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo to replace Karl-Anthony Towns. Alexander-Walker isn’t as splashy, but he’s a durable (82 games in each of the last two seasons), reliable (23-plus minutes per game), versatile defender who shoots high 30s from three-point range. Players like that are valuable, as Atlanta proved by locking in Alexander-Walker on a four-year, $62 million deal in a sign-and-trade. 

To replace Alexander-Walker, Minnesota will look internally. Terrence Shannon Jr. came on in the second half of the season and showed flashes of a nice two-way game in the playoffs. Rob Dillingham played sparingly as a rookie, but he may be ready for a bigger role. Bones Hyland and Joe Ingles could also pick up some slack. 

Alexander-Walker’s exit may not be Minnesota’s only problem. Mike Conley is 37 and averaged the fewest minutes per game (24.7) of his career last season. Rudy Gobert is 33 and isn’t the defender he was at his peak. The Wolves still have Anthony Edwards’s singular talent and frontcourt firepower with Randle and Naz Reid. But even the slightest erosion of talent could make a difference in a loaded Western Conference. 

Golden State Warriors

Major additions: None (for now)
Key loss: Kevon Looney 

The future of Jonathan Kuminga looms large for the Warriors. Kuminga could accept a team-friendly deal (two years, $45 million, per reports) which will almost certainly lead to Golden State entertaining trade offers. He could sign a qualifying offer (one year, $7.9 million) which would cost Kuminga millions but give him a de facto no-trade clause. Or he could wait to see if the Warriors can work out an acceptable sign-and-trade. 

Either way, Golden State’s roster makeup remains murky. It’s widely believed that Al Horford will sign with the Warriors once Kuminga’s situation is settled, which would fill the hole vacated by Looney. At 37, Stephen Curry remains a top-10(ish) player, Jimmy Butler looked revived following the midseason trade while Draymond Green reclaimed his place among the league’s top defenders last season and continues to be the heartbeat of the team. 

Will they get help? Kuminga, if he returns, has been an awkward fit. Brandin Podziemski was so-so in his second season after a strong rookie year. Trayce Jackson-Davis, Moses Moody and Quinten Post are young players with potential. If a few of them can step up and help keep Golden State’s aging core’s minutes down during the regular season, the Warriors could have one more run left in them. 

San Antonio Spurs

Major addition: Luke Kornet
Key loss: Chris Paul

San Antonio is a trendy pick to surge into the playoff field. Victor Wembanyama is back and in Year 3 could emerge as a top-10 player. De’Aaron Fox, who played just five games with Wembanyama last season after coming over from Sacramento, returns with a four-year extension locking him in as Wemby’s wingman. Stephon Castle is coming off a Rookie of the Year season, and the Spurs are loaded with solid veterans (Harrison Barnes, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson) to fill out the rotation. Oh, and second overall pick Dylan Harper is joining the mix. 

It’s too soon— too soon—to look at San Antonio as conference contenders. But a double-digit win improvement is possible and any team led by Wembanyama won’t be an easy out in the playoffs. The real conversation about the Spurs begins in 2026–27, but they have the talent to make this one interesting. 

Dallas Mavericks

Major additions: Cooper Flagg, D’Angelo Russell
Key loss: Spencer Dinwiddie

The Mavs stumbled into GM Nico Harrison’s dream scenario, with Flagg joining Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively II on one of the NBA’s most formidable defensive front lines. Dallas would be firmly entrenched in the contender tier if not for the uncertainty of Kyrie Irving’s availability—and how long it will take Irving to return to form when he’s back. 

By all accounts, Irving, who tore the ACL in his left knee last March, is progressing well. But the Mavericks have declined to put a timeline on Irving’s return, while Irving himself said on a recent livestream that he won’t come back until he is “150,000% better.” Russell will temporarily fill Irving’s spot in the lineup, but while Russell has shown he can be a capable starter, he doesn’t have the same offensive spark as Irving, who played to an All-Star level last season. 

Best case: Irving returns by the All-Star break and has enough of a ramp up to make the Mavs a force come playoffs. Worst case: Irving’s recovery is slow and he needs a full offseason to get back to last year’s level. It makes Dallas one of the real wild cards in the conference. 

Wait Till Next TierSacramento Kings

Major additions: Dennis Schroder, Dario Saric, Doug McDermott
Key losses: Jonas Valanciunas, Jake LaRavia

Since a 48-win 2022–23 season, the Kings have been going backwards, to 46 in ’23–24 to 40 last season. The slide cost them franchise point guard (De’Aaron Fox) and repositioned Sacramento as a promising team on the rise to an older one spinning its wheels in search of a play-in berth.

There’s still some firepower in Sacramento, with Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan providing scoring on the wing and the stat-stuffing Domantas Sabonis in the middle. And they continue to be among the teams interested in Kuminga. But the Kings were bottom-third in the NBA in defensive efficiency last season and there’s no reason to think that will measurably improve. Schroder is a stopgap at point guard and it’s way too early to expect rookies Nique Clifford and Maxime Raynaud to meaningfully contribute. It wouldn’t be surprising to see new GM Scott Perry strip another veteran or two off the roster before the trade deadline. 

New Orleans Pelicans

Major additions: Jordan Poole, Kevon Looney, Saddiq Bey
Key losses: CJ McCollum, Kelly Olynyk

Kind of a weird offseason in New Orleans, no? Joe Dumars’s first acts as Pelicans boss was to bring in a faded big man (Looney) and two ex-Wizards with cap-clogging contracts. Meanwhile, the Pels surrendered an unprotected 2026 first-round pick to move up 10 spots to draft Maryland big man Derik Queen. Risky, to say the least. 

There’s a scenario where this all works out, of course. Dumars has challenged Zion Williamson to up his conditioning, and there’s early confidence in New Orleans that Williamson can regain his 2023–24 form, when he played 70 games. Poole, for all his warts, is more of a shot creator than McCollum. Bey, who missed all of last season with a knee injury, had shown flashes of developing into a 3-and-D wing. And Queen had some games at Summer League that suggested he could be ready for the rotation this season. 

The rest of the roster is pretty good. Trey Murphy III is a big-time three-point shooter. Herb Jones, a rising two-way wing, is back after an injury-ravaged 2024–25 season. And Yves Missi had an outstanding rookie year. As always, everything in New Orleans hinges on Williamson’s health. But if he can stay on the floor, the Pelicans could surprise the skeptics.