As the Australian domestic season heads towards a spectacular conclusion, here’s our guide – which, by necessity, still contains a wide range of possible outcomes – as to who might finish where.
John Polack10-Mar-2002And then there were four.Five batting collapses and three gripping last day finishes in the penultimate round of matches have left two teams out of contention for a place in this season’s Pura Cup Final.Which leaves a new set of numbers to contemplate.With one round to go, there are three matches left to separate the finals combatants. And a total of four in all to work out whether it’s glory for the old hand or for one of the new bucks snapping at its heels.As the Australian domestic season heads towards a spectacular conclusion, here’s our guide – which, by necessity, still contains a wide range of possible outcomes – as to who might finish where:Queensland: Any points at all from the last-round encounter with Victoria will not only be enough to guarantee the Bulls a place in the Final but will also ensure that the decider is played at home. On the basis of past results – which show that the Vics have managed to secure only one win in Brisbane in the last 35 years – that would appear a formality. Even if the Bulls were to claim no points at all from their battle with the struggling Bushrangers, it would still take outright victories by both Tasmania and Western Australia to deny them a finals position altogether.
QUEENSLAND WILL HOST THE FINAL IF IT:Takes any points from its match against Victoria
or:Fails to take points against Victoria and neither Tasmania nor Western Australia wins outright and passes it on quotient.
QUEENSLAND WILL PLAY IN AN AWAY FINAL IF IT:Fails to take points against Victoria and has one of Tasmania or Western Australia win outright and go past it on quotient.
Highest possible finishing position: 1st
Lowest possible finishing position: 3rdTasmania: Having won three times by an innings in the space of their last four outings, the Tigers are playing with irresistible confidence and skill and have clearly established themselves as the form team of the competition over recent rounds. All they need now is another outright win over New South Wales at home, and they have all but booked their place in only the third first-class finals match in their state’s history. There’s even the chance – if Queensland was to end its game against Victoria without any points – that the Final could be played in Hobart. Yet the Tigers are still in danger of missing out altogether. An outright result either way in the match between Western Australia and South Australia means that they will need nothing less than six points of their own to reach the Final.
TASMANIA WILL HOST THE FINAL IF IT:Defeats New South Wales outrightand:Queensland fails to take any points from its match against Victoria and finishes with a lower quotientand:Western Australia fails to take outright points from its match against South Australia, or wins outright but does not finish with a higher quotient.
TASMANIA WILL PLAY IN AN AWAY FINAL IF IT:Defeats New South Wales outright; Queensland takes any points from its match against Victoria; and Western Australia does not defeat South Australia outrightor:Defeats New South Wales outright and Queensland, even in taking no points from its match against Victoria, still finishes ahead on quotientor:Defeats New South Wales outright, finishes level on points with both Queensland and Western Australia but behind one of them on quotientor:Defeats New South Wales outright; Western Australia defeats South Australia outright; Queensland takes points from its match against Victoria; and Western Australia finishes with a lower quotientor:Defeats New South Wales on the first innings; Western Australia defeats South Australia on the first innings; and Western Australia finishes with a lower quotientor:Defeats New South Wales on the first innings and South Australia defeats Western Australia on the first inningsor:Fails to take points against New South Wales; South Australia defeats Western Australia on the first innings; and Western Australia finishes with a lower quotient.
Highest possible finishing position: 1st
Lowest possible finishing position: 4thWestern Australia: What a difference a few hours can make. In the period of 148 minutes spanned by the final innings of the match, the Warriors re-cast their whole season with their remarkable come-from-behind win over Victoria in the penultimate round of fixtures. An outright loss would have left them six points behind second-placed Tasmania and almost certainly out of realistic contention for a berth in the Final. As things stand now, they remain on level terms with the Tigers and an outright win over South Australia in the concluding round will give the Warriors a huge chance of a fifth finals appearance in seven years. Even a first innings win over South Australia could be enough to get them there. If six points came their way in Perth; if Queensland failed to collect points against Victoria; and if Tasmania failed to beat New South Wales outright, it’s not out of the realms of possibility that the Final could even be staged in Perth.
WESTERN AUSTRALIA WILL HOST THE FINAL IF IT:Defeats South Australia outrightand:Queensland fails to take any points from its match against Victoria and finishes with a lower quotientand:Tasmania either fails to take outright points from its match against New South Wales, or wins outright but does not finish with a higher quotient.
WESTERN AUSTRALIA WILL PLAY IN AN AWAY FINAL IF IT:Defeats South Australia outright; Queensland takes any points from its match against Victoria; and Tasmania does not defeat New South Wales outrightor:Defeats South Australia outright and Queensland, even in taking no points from its match against Victoria, still finishes ahead on quotientor:Defeats South Australia outright, finishes level on points with both Queensland and Tasmania but behind one of them on quotientor:Defeats South Australia outright; Tasmania defeats New South Wales outright; Queensland takes points from its match against Victoria; and Tasmania finishes with a lower quotientor:Defeats South Australia on the first innings; Tasmania defeats New South Wales on the first innings; and Tasmania finishes with a lower quotientor:Defeats South Australia on the first innings and Tasmania takes no points from its match against New South Walesor:Fails to take points against South Australia; Tasmania takes no points from the match against New South Wales; and Tasmania finishes with a lower quotient.
Highest possible finishing position: 1st
Lowest possible finishing position: 4thSouth Australia: Successive outright losses to Queensland and Tasmania have dramatically weakened the Redbacks’ chances of reaching the Final. Nonetheless, they remain only four points behind second-placed Tasmania and third-placed Western Australia and are still a definite chance of squeezing into second spot and qualifying for a match-up against Queensland in Brisbane. The fact that they are drawn to play Western Australia in Perth in the last round also helps immeasurably in that an outright victory will ensure that they finish ahead of the Warriors. Though a Tasmanian outright victory over New South Wales would kill off the South Australians’ qualification hopes, fate therefore rests at least to some degree in their own hands. Another important factor in the Redbacks’ favour is their comparatively high number of outright victories this summer. Under the playing conditions in use for the Pura Cup, sides equal on points are first separated by their respective numbers of outright wins for the season. In accordance with that rule, South Australia would qualify ahead of Tasmania or Western Australia if it finished level on points with either of those states.
SOUTH AUSTRALIA WILL PLAY IN AN AWAY FINAL IN BRISBANE IF IT:Defeats Western Australia outright and Tasmania does not defeat New South Wales outright.
Highest possible finishing position: 2nd
Lowest possible finishing position: 5thVictoria: A miserable season reached its lowest ebb when the Bushrangers collapsed to an embarrassing 37-run loss to Western Australia in their last outing. The result – which also represented a grievous setback for both Tasmania and South Australia – was an horrific one for the Bushrangers, killing off any flickering hopes of a finals appearance and underlining the lack of assertiveness that has marked their game this season. Unfortunately, matters don’t get any easier in the last round: a trip to nemesis city Brisbane awaiting them. If they can reverse decades of poor results in Queensland, then they could conceivably leapfrog South Australia and move into fourth position; if they can not, then a return to the wooden spoon position might be the fate that awaits them at the end of a forgettable few months.
Highest possible finishing position: 4th
Lowest possible finishing position: 6thNew South Wales: Given the determined accounts they have given of themselves in riveting finishes against Western Australia and Queensland in their last two games, it doesn’t seem entirely fair that the Blues are anchored to the bottom of the table and have lost all hope of finals qualification. They nevertheless have the chance to move out of last place and to have another big say in the finish of the competition when they head to Hobart to be hosted by Tasmania. The Tigers will be desperate for six points and anything the Blues can do to stop them will be greeted with glee by the likes of Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia. Though they have only the prospect of finishing fifth or sixth on the table awaiting them, the mood of the players right across the squad going into the winter months would also be given a boost if the Blues were to take a positive approach into the season’s concluding fixture. With news emerging that Michael Slater will be drafted in as a shock choice as captain, it is unlikely to be a dull finish.
Highest possible finishing position: 5th
Lowest possible finishing position: 6th